Wars in Ukraine, Gaza, And Taiwan?

From the recent article: The Quiet Before The Storms In Ukraine, Gaza, And Taiwan?

"There are three current hot or cold wars: on the Ukrainian border, in the regions surrounding Israel, and in the strategic space between Taiwan and mainland China. All three conflicts could not only expand within their respective theaters but also escalate to draw in the United States.... Confusion and strategic pauses for the brief moment mark all these conflicts. In part, the hiatuses arose because of uncertainty surrounding the murky intentions and role of the United States. The latter is bogged down in an unpredictable if not bizarre election year, compounded by ambiguity about who is actually in control of the country and for how long, and who will be president after January 2025....

NATO and the United States will likely never allow Russia to annex Ukraine in toto beyond the Donbas and Crimea. The longer the ensuing stagnation, the more likely one side will seek a dramatic breakthrough, and so the more likely becomes a greater war with third-party intervention and deadlier weapons. Turning to the second conflict, we find that Iran is now in a dangerous position of its own making. It has loudly promised Israel and boasted to the Muslim world that it will attack the Jewish homeland for a second time within a year....

As for the third, still-bloodless conflict: China envisions strategy globally rather than regionally. It helps to fuel the stalemate in Ukraine, on the grounds that its traditional rival turned temporary friend Russia is hurting the West by consuming its money, weapons, and attention—while conveniently hurting itself in the process. China is openly aiding Iran, not because it is especially friendly to radical Islam (cf. its treatment of the Uyghurs) or innately hostile to the Jewish state. Instead, it simply welcomes these tensions that cause radical domestic upheaval and political dissension inside America, while drawing U.S. naval and air assets far away from the South China Sea.

China’s operating principle seems to be to watch and wait for the outcome of the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, given that both tax Western powers. It is eager and patient to see how the conflicts end, especially whether Russia achieves by force its apparent goals, and whether Iran and its proxies permanently redefine the future of the Middle East. These outcomes will serve to indicate the level of potential Western resistance to or intentional condemnation of its own planned annexation of Taiwan.

In conclusion, we are entering a very dangerous five-month period.

Joe Biden has been judged by the American people in the polls as too enfeebled to be reelected and declared by his own party to be too cognitively challenged to remain its nominee. That may suggest to foreign risk-takers that the U.S. president is deemed unfit by Americans themselves and thus conclude there might be a vacuum of rapid-response leadership at the White House. The unspoken corollary is that the American people and both their political parties are certain that, while Biden is incapable of continuing as a normally engaged president through the last half-year of his tenure, he will nevertheless inevitably do so. And that conclusion is likely shared by enemies abroad, who may surmise that if there ever was a time to alter the current geostrategic map or the relative balance of power, that rare occasion is now on the horizon."

Now in case you don't think the China/Taiwan region's pre-war activities are accelerating, it should get your attention that yesterday "Japan says Chinese military plane violated its airspace for the first time" EVER. Read the comments under the video Heading Toward War? Reevaluating Taiwan’s Status Quo. Or just read: Dragon's Prey: Will China Invade Taiwan in 2024?